Wes’ Weekly Draft Tips: Can Romo’s Injury Bring the Cowboys Luck?

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The ’10 season has Cowboys fans in pain. Here are some top draft prospects who could ease the suffering.

Some teams have all the luck. The last time the Cowboys bottomed out, back in 1988, they got a Hall of Fame QB named Aikman as their reward. Compare that to the Browns, who got Tim Couch in the ’99 “Year of the Quarterback,” the Raiders, who paid a mint for top overall bust Jamarcus Russell, or the 49ers, who are still waiting for dividends from top overall pick Alex Smith.

We have miles of 2010 highway to travel before the final draft order is set, but in a year where the Cowboys have seen their playoff hopes crushed before Halloween they may, again, get some Luck. They’re rolling in the top-5 today and thus find themselves in the early running for Andrew Luck, a QB many draft experts, including the National Football Post’s Wes Bunting, rate the best in years. Today, Wes and I discuss the quarterback crop, and some top offensive tackle prospects:

Cowboys Nation: I got an excellent question from a reader last week about Wisconsin’s left tackle Gabe Carimi. He noted that some draftniks rate him in the late-1st, early-2nd and others rank him in the top 12-15 overall. There doesn’t seem to be a consensus on him. We all got a quality match-up on Saturday when he went head-to-head with Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn, who’s a solid top-10 guy. What did Carimi show you?

Wes Bunting: I have him as my third-best senior offensive tackle, after Mississippi State’s Derek Sherrod and Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo. I think he’s a good enough athlete to play left tackle in the NFL, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a dominant pass blocker because he is a bit limited from an athletic standpoint. He’s going to be a heck of a run-blocker for you. I think he could end up being a very average pass blocker. With that being said, I think you could start the guy at right tackle and if he does a nice job and establishes himself there, just leave him there.

He’s going to win for you at the point of attack. He’s going to drive people off the football and I think he’s good enough to take on the left ends he’ll face in the NFL. That’s where I think he fits, to be honest.

Cowboys Nation: That’s the impression I got. Wisconsin doesn’t have any trouble running to his side. He was dominant when they beat Ohio State but when he was going against Clayborn, he looked good when Wisconsin ran the ball but when they passed, he looked to be hanging on some downs when Clayborn rushed the edge hard.

Wes Bunting: Clayborn’s not a real explosive, flatten-down around the end speed rusher. He’s a guy who wants to get into your body, use his hands and his violence and suddenness. With a guy like Carimi, that’s where his game is at so Clayborn, it appears, just said, I’m a better athlete than you. I’m going to beat you around the edge. Carimi sometimes had trouble reaching him, and if he’s having trouble with a Clayborn, imagine him against a Dwight Freeney.

That’s how you have to think about it. We’re not evaluating these guys as college players, we’re projecting them against the Freeneys, the Mario Williams, the Demarcus Wares of the world.

Cowboys Nation: Where do you slot him then given his athletic limitations?

Wes Bunting: I think somewhere in that late 1st-round, early 2nd-round range.

Cowboys Nation: Assuming that Dallas finishes in the top ten, and that looks like a stronger possibility today, I think they’re going to look hard for linemen in that 32-40 range and he could fall there, couldn’t he?

Wes Bunting: Yes. I would put him in that mix there. I can see a team really falling in love with him but at the same time I can see teams seeing him as a right tackle only and just like Phil Loadholt two years ago, he was that one guy who one team had pegged; they were going to take him with the 2nd-round pick and he’s going to start for them for the next 5-7 years. I think Carimi’s a little better than Loadholt but I can see him being that same type of player.

Cowboys Nation: Dallas certainly needs a right tackle so they could find themselves in that mind set. Let’s move to those other two offensive tackles you mentioned, Sherrod and Castonzo. Do they fall in a similar range? What are their strengths and weaknesses?

Wes Bunting: They’re both better athletes, better pass protectors. Sherrod plays a bit high. He can get bullied at times but he’s a strong kid, with good range off the edge. I love his balance and his ability to re-direct and mirror in pass protection. He’s 6’5″ and a little more compact than the 6’7″ guys. He’s also a nice space run blocker. He can get out to the 2nd level, he can break down in space. When he has to block a pitch he can slide out, plus he’s got a bit more power than he’s given credit for. He’s very good in a zone scheme, but he’s not as physical as a guy like Carimi. I do think he’s the best pass protector of any senior in the draft.

Cowboys Nation: Can he play left tackle?

Wes Bunting: Yeah, he’s a left tackle. I would take him with my first-round pick and plug him in on my left side.

Cowboys Nation: I imagine then he’s going to rise, playing on the left side.

Wes Bunting: Yes, but he’s not in the class of a guy like Russell Okung. You could take him in the top-10 if you really needed a left tackle, but I think he’s more of a mid-first level player.

Cowboys Nation: And Castonzo?

Wes Bunting: This is a 6’7″, 300 lb. kid. He’s also a finesse player who can get bullied at the point of attack, but he’s got a lot of range. He was a four-year starter at Boston College. He’s a nice move/run player. He’s a character kid, smart. I think he’s up to be a Rhodes Scholar this year. All the intangibles are there. He’s a safe pick. He’s also going to be a left tackle for you.

He was the highest rated guy for National coming into the season. I don’t think he’s a blue-chipper, a guy who’s going to come in an be an instant impact guy, but I think you can win with this guy if he continues to mature physically, because he needs more power at the point of attack, but he can mirror on the edge. He’s a solid pass blocker.

Cowboys Nation: So you put him in the top 20?

Wes Bunting: He’s a top 20-25 guy. Both these left tackles are probably in the 20-25 range, but they get pushed up, because people need LTs. I have Sherrod rated 4th overall, regardless of position, among the seniors.

That doesn’t mean he’s a blue-chipper, it just shows how weak the senior class is. Depending on the juniors who come out, he could be pushed way up. I want you to keep that in mind.

Cowboys Nation: This question always comes up, regardless of Tony Romo’s health, but if we’re projecting a top-10 Dallas pick, what about quarterbacks? You and I have talked about a couple of these guys. We talked about Ryan Mallett a couple of weeks ago when he struggled against Alabama. How does the top cluster of quarterbacks compare to the ones who were drafted a year, or two years ago?

Wes Bunting: I think Andrew Luck [Stanford] is your number one overall pick. He’s a guy who has the “it” factor, which is the most important quality. The physical skill set is there. I would put money in the bank and say this kid can win a Super Bowl for you. He’s your number one quarterback prospect.

Then, you have two guys who are physically talented, but the biggest question is do they have that ”it” factor? I’m talking about Washington’s Jake Locker and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett. Mallett is banged up and he’s strictly a pocket passer. Lethargic footwork. If you make him move his feet he really struggles. Some scouts really don’t like him. But with his physical skill set it only takes one team and I think he’s going to go high in the first round somewhere. Would I take him up there? Absolutely not, but I think some team will fall in love with him.

Jake Locker is really inconsistent. He’s at his best outside the pocket. He’s not the most consistent pocket passer but he shows flashes. He’s struggled against top-level competition. He’s struggled to go through his progressions consistently. His accuracy gets spotty, but physically he’s got all the tools. He’s spent his summers playing baseball so that’s affected his ability to develop; there’s still plenty of upside there.

He’s one guy the Cowboys could look at, give him a year or two to develop. I think he’s similar in many ways to Stephen McGee, who I really liked coming out

Cowboys Nation: I want to ask you one more question about Luck, because you talk about his “it” factor. I watched him closely against Oregon and in the first half there he looked brillant, but in the 2nd half, after his top receiver went out, he started forcing passes and was intercepted a couple of times on 1st down, which is one of Tony Romo’s foibles. You’ve seen a lot more of him than I have, what makes you so high about his intangibles?

Wes Bunting: This will put that Oregon game in perspective. I agree, he did press a bit. But when that receiver went out, Luck is down his top two receivers for the year, his number one and his number two. So now he’s throwing to his number three and his number four guys and with all due respect to Stanford, they’re not a real deep skill-position team, and his number three and his number four are not real good.

He’s on the road at Oregon, and he knows he’s got to keep pace with Oregon because his defense isn’t going to stop the Ducks offense. So right there, he’s demonstrating that he understands the situation. That’s an example of “it” to me. Has Stanford ever been a factor in a bowl game the last decade? Not really. This guy comes along and he gets them to a bowl game starting as a freshman. He’s going to take them to another starting as a sophomore. If he were to stick around’another year, and he might, he could be one of the best quarterback prospects to come along since Peyton Manning.

Cowboys Nation: You think that highly of him?

Wes Bunting: He’s absolutely the real deal. Of all the quarterbacks to come out the last five years, I would take this guy to the bank over all of them. I like him that much.

Cowboys Nation: So he could get the Eli Manning treatment, in terms of draft value, when he comes out?

Wes Bunting: Yeah, and he’s a better prospect than Eli Manning. I would give up the farm for him, if I really needed a quarterback. He’s one of the few guys taken number one who I would feel confident about.

Thursday: A look at Auburn’s Nick Fairley, whose dominant game against LSU rocketed him to the top of the D-lineman list, and perhaps a spot in the top 3, overall draft value in the early first and second rounds, and a tip on Wes’ upcoming big board.

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Rafael Vela

Rafael Vela

Started covering Dallas Cowboys @ TheBoys.com in '95 and '96. Two more stops along the way and here I am. Senior Analyst for SportsTalkLine.com
  • TONYINCC

    Wow, as QB not really a forseen need, Luck with that kind of review intrigues me.

    • http://www.cowboysnation.com Rafael Vela

      Look at this as an asset. If you get to one, you can either shop him or Romo. Either brings you a lot in return. Romo’s contract is very cap friendly for a Pro Bowl QB.

      • JimmyJohnsonSB

        I also never thought replacing Romo would ever enter the realm of thinkability. And I doubt it will for Jerry. One of his guiding principles is “It is very, very hard to find a franchise QB”. He wandered the desert so long before finding Romo, I doubt he will give up on him so soon for a rookie draft pick.

        Besides, this team has serious needs at O-Line and DB that have not been addressed in 3-5 years. Passing on those areas of need for a shiney new QB is the type of decision that got us into this mess.

        • bleee

          Rookie QB with our line is a recipe for disaster.

      • GrayDog

        No way Dallas shops Romo. My bet is that Red wil be the next HC & Norv Turner (after getting fired in SD) will be the OC.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_TNGLH6NLPD5BSBSTOMX7DAUKPE Michael

        So Raf, what do you think we could get for Romo (as in draft picks). I dont see us getting better than a 2nd ( I think a 1st is stretching it) then do we just start Luck right off the bat? Or have him develop under Kitna? (no thanks)

  • rocklaw

    Who would be more valuable, Luck or Peterson? Is Peterson a Top 5er?

    • joey2zs

      How about both? Trade Romo and Felix Jones to Arizona or Buffalo or Carolina for their top 5 pick and like a 5th rounder… of course Romo’s broken collarbone doesn’t exactly increase his trade value.
      I wonder… you may see Romo in the last two games of the year to perform as trade bait to prove he can still get it done.
      (this is all wild speculation in good fun to rile up FOTRs – fans of tony romo)

      • http://www.cowboysnation.com Rafael Vela

        since you’re playing the crazy speculation game — would you consider a two-fer if you got the top spot? Drafting Luck and hiring his current HC Jim Harbaugh to develop him?

        If you’re going this route, Brian Schottenheimer makes a lot of sense too. He got Mark Sanchez deep into the playoffs as a rookie and has him on a short leash, turnovers wise, this year.

        • JimmyJohnsonSB

          I know he has done a bangup job as a college coach. But I never would have thought I would see the day that Jim Harbaugh and his fragile psyche would be a serious candidate for NFL head coach. If he’s HC, we need to make Ditka his GM.

        • Luke.

          I wondered how long it would be until someone made that Harbaugh/Luck connection. If Harbaugh is our new head coach I wonder how hard he would push for Luck?

          Also, if Luck is as exciting a prospect as Wes states than he will go #1 overall and the other teams in contention for that pick will want him for themselves. We’d have to have the first pick in the draft to land him. Not impossible but not likely.

  • joey2zs

    woooo hoooo! This is good stuff. Way better than the real NFL season and the actual Cowboys team.
    No need to cover the ‘Boys any longer, Rafael. “What if” draft prospects are much more fun than the real Cowboys.

    I’ve watched Mallett and Locker. Mallett is just purely awful. There is no way that numbnuts is an NFL QB, let alone a first round draft pick.
    Oh no, he’s an Arkansas QB… there’s no way… Jerry wouldn’t… he just couldn’t.. oh boy.

    • http://www.cowboysnation.com Rafael Vela

      This last point doesn’t worry me. Felix Jones is the only Razorback the Cowboys have drafted in the 22 years Jerry has owned the team. The Jerry-loves-Arkansas-guys meme travels far and wide, but it’s not valid. You need more than one guy in 22 years to make it so.

      Besides, you’re right. Mallett is awful. It’s that obvious.

  • Tex

    Gotta keep Wade around for the next ten weeks if the Cowboys are going to have any chance at the top pick. Wade may be the only guy that Chan Gailey could out coach.

    • http://www.cowboysnation.com Rafael Vela

      Tex,Root, root, root for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the old Harvardian. I think the Cowboys are swimming in a vortex of wierd. Last week, everybody said, and rightly so, that they could go 7-9 or 8-8 with Romo. Now, he’s gone. But why stop there?Kitna can’t move. The o-line is crumbling. They’re down to Phil Costa as a starter. Who’s to say the QB breakdowns are over? I’m not sure this team has hit bottom yet, Tex. Injury wise, luck wise, or in finding ways to lose. It’s that type of year. I’m drawing on Hunter Thompson. When the going gets wierd, the wierd turn pro. Declare for the wierd draft folks, we’re just getting warmed up.

      • Luke.

        Hahaha… you make the rest of this terrible season sound so exciting!!

        Hats off to you sir!

  • TL fan

    After giving it a night’s thought I have now come to a completely different conclusion regarding whether or not Stephen McGee should start.

    My conclusion – play whomever loses the most games. I suspect that is McGee, therefore he would be my starter from now on. And I hope he would lose every single game, regardless of how that impacts his future.

    Assume for a moment that by playing McGee the Cowboys only win 1 or 2 more games this year versus Kitna who might win 4 games. That could be the difference between choosing 2nd or 6th in this years draft.

    Per the value chart, the difference between the 2nd and 6th pick is 1,000 points.

    The value of the 1st pick in the 4th round, where McGee was selected, is 112 points.

    So what if you potentially ruin the career of McGee, the spread between 1,000 points and 112 points is worth it IMO.

    Added bonus is you give yourself the opportunity to draft the next Payton. If that is indeed true, you simply don’t pass up that chance, period.

    • Luke.

      Sacrifice McGee on the alter of draft points!!

      Since whoever we have at QB will be getting stampeded every other play, perhaps sticking with the immobile Kitna rather than the fleet-footed McGee is the way to go for draft points? Lord knows the Oline isn’t going to run block our way out of this.

      • TL fan

        Luke, you may be right, Kitna may be an easier target than McGee due to his clay-feet and our OL play…we shall see.

        I would be more inclined to perserve McGee if I thought he had real talent. Since he was mentioned as a potential cut just a week before final cuts occurred, I think he is expendable.

  • bleee

    So it comes to this, eh? I’m still behind Romo. If we’re in a position to pick this Luck dude, then flip it for picks.

    Any other examples of potential “can’t miss” guys to draft real early?

    Also…sabatoging the season to get a high draft pick? Let’s get real. That’s got to screw up the team culturally, it gives a middle finger to any fans with season tickets, it makes the stadium empty for the rest of the season…come on.

    And I’m for letting the young guys play, but I’ve seen in some places that people want to let ALL the young guys play. You can’t sit Ware, Rat, etc. They can still find things to work on. All those guys still love their stats, Ware could be looking at the all time list of sacks in a few years, etc. I WOULD bench Brooking, Ball and perhaps Davis and Columbo (we need to keep our QBs alive at least) in favor of Lee, Church/McCray, and God knows which OL “prospects.” Maybe Sensi too. And then a healthy rotating in of Brent, Lissemore, JWilliams, AOA, Butler, etc.

    • http://www.cowboysnation.com Rafael Vela

      @bleee,I’m not for sabotaging the season. I’ve seen this happen in the NBA. I follow the Rockets from time to time and remember Robert Reid “retiring” to get the team a shot at Hakeem Olajuwon, or was it Ralph Sampson? In any case, when I talk about wierdness, I think the Cowboys are on a slide beyond their control. Nothing they’re tried has worked. I do think they’ll win again, but given their schedule, I’m not sure when or where or how often.

      • bleee

        Well I recall the Niners and Raiders seemingly winning games against their will in the great Reggie Bush sweepstakes a few years back, though I guess Oakland ended up with the #1 pick. They were in prime position but ended up #6 and #7. Pretty funny than Vernon Davis turned out to be a better pick, unless you’re a true believer in the “Reggie Bush is so valuable as a decoy, and picking up 7 yards per catch is gamebreaking! theory.

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_CYQW6J4L7MN6CZFDAEDGWW4XYY Erik

          Purposely tanking a season doesn’t work. Just ask the Celtics; they tanked in 2007, hoping to get Durant or Oden, but it didn’t work out that way. Same thing heppened to them the year Tim Duncan was available in the nibba draft.
          I don’t think the Cowboys will have to worry about “trying to lose”; they didn’t try to lose the first 6 games, and they had no problem losing regardless of the circumstances. Based on what’s happened so far this season, and the remaining schedule, there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of wins left. Jacksonville? Maybe if they contan MJD (Mike Simms-Walker and Mercedes Lewis will probably have a career days). Detroit? Potentially. Washington? Maybe they can ruin the Skins’ playoff chances. Aside from those three games, there’s not a lot of chances of victory left. I can’t imagine them beating Philly and NY on the road, GB on the road, Indy on the road, Philly at home. I guess maybe AZ on the road is a possibility too.
          The fact is that barring a miracle, Wade is gone at the end of the year, and the players aren’t naive to that. Lame-duck coaches RARELY get good performances from their teams (see Seattle 2008). I think we won’t have to worry one iota about the Cowboys blowing their top5 draft position by winning games. However, I would like to see them beat the Skins and have that game be The Game that keeps the Skins out of the playoffs. Living in Norhtern Virginia, I enjoy Skins’ fan’s pain more than others.

          • bleee

            Right. But if somehow they surge (I suppose that’s possible), it’s still a good thing, not a bad thing or a neutral thing.

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_CYQW6J4L7MN6CZFDAEDGWW4XYY Erik

            100% agree. A surge is unlikely, but I would be happy if it happened.

          • StillHateTheGiants

            I think this team is capable of screwing up everything. In this case, they’ll find a way to bungle into just enough wins to screw up the draft.

    • MontecitoTex

      The season was sabotaged when Wade Phillips, aka Bad Luck Schleprock, was brought back for a fourth year.

      • edubz

        What, two of you?

    • Tex

      Romo is fine, but he’s not a Championship QB. He’s regressing and on the down side of his career. His interceptions come on tipped balls because he lacks the size of a prototype quarterback, nor does he display the mental acumen of a Drew Brees to overcome his physical shortcomings, see pear-shaped physique. Most importantly, Romo doesn’t have the mental makeup of a Champion. There’s no snarl, leadership or presence. Dudes a serviceable signal caller, in the mold of Kyle Orton and Chad Henne, but he will never take the Dallas Cowboys to the promised land.

      • bleee

        Brees is throwing picks like they’re going out of style man. Eli won a ring without any snarl or presence (and the luckiest throw ever). Romo might have reached his ceiling but he’s hasn’t started to decline yet.

  • foyesboys

    If the Cowboys happen into this number 1 pick, they are really sitting on a gold mine and likely can’t go wrong. You could pretty much revamp this secondary and oline in 1 draft if you pull off a trade. Or you could take Luck and trade Romo, which would enable this team to stay in contention for another decade.

    Outside of Luck, I don’t see a sure thing at qb, and I would be very hesitant to pull the trigger. A top 10 qb that struggles (and I think both Locker and Mallett will) would waste the best years of this team and send us into irrelevancy. If we end up in the 6-10 range, which I think is likely, this team may be best served by trading down into the mid first round and going after one of those tackles and picking up an extra pick.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_MT5F3ADCR7RYNHBOEJ7RR6DYKY ScottK

    Too bad we’re not going to have the number one pick. It would be awesome to flip it for a farm to some team that really coveted Luck.

    Will be interested to see Wes’s take on Fairley. He almost dominated as much on defense as Cam Superman did on offense.

    • bleee

      I really don’t see how we’re getting more than 2 or so wins. Kitna is going to get killed out there without Romo’s quicks and ability to sense and move away from the pressure. And our run game is the worst in years.

  • MadMick

    A Cowboy called Luck? Damn, that sounds like some kind of gay porno. Or either one of those old timey black and white good and evil westerns Realist Larry and Tex favor so much.

    What’s a rookie contract’s length? 5-6 years? Why couldn’t a young stallion possibly supplant a 33 or 34-year old Romo who hasn’t gotten it done at the age of 27-30? Nothing personal against Romo but maybe he’s just burnt out by the whole atmosphere of the Metroplex area.

    Hell, what’s the difference between Romo, Palmer or Rivers right now? All their squads are middling mediocre jabronies. So I’m fine with Romo leading a re-tooled squad from here on out but maybe he’s just burnt out here. Who could blame him?

    • MadMick

      Should’ve added these idiots couldn’t screw a poodle with a doggy proof dick but all the same Romo’s a part of the corrupt DNA. No key piece is in-expendable and certainly not QB when recent young passers have shown the aptitude they have for coming right into the league and contributing.

      • joey2zs

        That’s Jerry’s flaw, though. He’s a fan, businessman and General Manager, which means he makes poor decisions personnel-wise. The fan falls in love with the hype and persona of the players after the businessman has created hype and persona of those players. Therefore, the General Manager doesn’t view the players as commodities; he’s a fan of them, and fond of the current return on his investment derived from making them brand names.The deals that Miles Austin and MBIII have are ridiculous. Miles is a nice weapon (minus the dropsies) but if he was traded for a lineman that can get Romo two more beats to release the ball, then Austin is unnecessary. MBIII is important to block blitzers, but if he was traded so that a lineman could be drafted who can also block blitzers, then it’s a deal that has to be made. But Jones is too in love with the brand names “Marion Barber” and “Miles Austin.” That’s how he has always rolled.

        • bleee

          Not really sure about these. You need a good blocking RB for overloads and whatnot. Teams DO send more than 5 guys sometimes. MB’s not worth the money but he seemed like a monster at the time of the contract.

          And good receivers mean you need less time to throw. Miles’ contract is deserved, as I don’t think Roy is staying around all that long.

        • Luke.

          It certainly seems that way quite often. Jerry always seems to give extensions when guys are right at their highest value. He also seems taken with flashy skill position guys. Look at the big contracts and draft investments on offense; RB’s and WR’s. All the while our Oline absolutely stinks.

        • StillHateTheGiants

          Agree on MBIII and said it when he signed. Austin is worth his contract.

    • bleee

      Hey man, Palmer sucks.

      Anyway, I wouldn’t mind taking a top flight QB to groom, but I’d rather get some superstar at some other position if they’re available. With Romo at the helm, I’d rather pick some awesome LT, RT, FS, SS, CB, or even RG/LG with a top pick. If the “value” isn’t there, then try to trade it.

      If we’re in position to pick Luck, then we’re also in position to take some beast who plays another position.

    • http://www.cowboysnation.com Rafael Vela

      “A Cowboy called Luck? Damn, that sounds like some kind of gay porno…”

      MadMick, you made me spew my food. You owe me a keyboard! And thanks for the laugh. Glad everybody is keeping their sense of humor.

  • DW94

    I think some of you are being a tad dramatic. They still play four games where the opposing team is worse and three of them are home games – JAC, DET, WAS, @ARI.

    Now, perhaps they don’t win all of those games. However, every week you see inferior teams beat superior ones – sometimes on pretty unprectiable sequences (fumble luck, special teams return, etc.)

    So yeah, I think we are looking at a 4-12 – 6-10 team. Top 5 is a possibility, but #1 overall is unlikely.

    • AustonianAggie

      1-5 isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence. When is Dallas going to win 3 or 5 games?

      • DW94

        Well, I just listed the most likely wins above.

        I think that there are better ways of viewing teams than simply looking at the W-L column. I think advanced stats work like that done by Football Outsiders and Brian Burke is one way. However, one pretty simple way is to look at the Pythagorean wins. It’s the numbers of wins you’d expect given the overall point differential of your games. It’s something that Bill James, of sabermetrics fame in baseball, first coined. You can read about it here.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

        Let’s apply it to Dallas. Despite a 1-5 record, their overall point differential is only -15. That means that they’re averaging -2.5 points per game in differential. Which makes sense, given they’ve lost a bunch of close games. That total differential, -15, puts them at 23rd in a 32 team league.

        So, going by expected wins they have a 2.6 – 3.4 record. Or, in others words, close to an “average” record. (Just for one, in Football Outsiders’ latest rankings that were released last night, Dallas is 17th overall in the league, right there with Seattle).

        Obviously, no system is “perfect.” Future injuries can’t be predicted with certainty. No one knows exactly how Jon Kitna will perform (or Stephen McGee if it comes to that). But I don’t really think that this is an awful team. I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished with 6 wins.

  • Oklahoma

    Hmmm. How could this season get worse? I know, what about a Steelers – Giants Super Bowl, with the Steelers winning their 7th and a sea of Terrible Towels waving throughout Tex Stadium, or whatever it’s called. May as well toss in Jerry appointing the Redskin Grimm or a Son of A Buddy to coach the Boys.

    Cowboys fans the world over are singing the same tune: “I’d like to buy the Boys a coach and save this company…”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfU17niXOG8&feature=related [look for a young Tex 12 seconds in]

    • omar

      lol for the tex stuff

  • AustonianAggie

    Wow we really are in line for a #1 pick over all… if Luck is that good I think Dallas has to take him.

    • omar

      agree, by the way wes talked of him, now i think he’s the solution of our problems haha, maybe if he weren’t a scout he could be a salesman

  • Dezislegend

    with Romo, who is a great QB imo and all the Romo haters will see exactly how important Tony Romo is to the Dallas Cowboys
    remember after Aikman before Romo? Remember those 3 games 2008?
    well get ready for 10 games of it
    Romo will come back and win comeback player of the year in 2011, mark my words
    this team will have a real head coach, possibly a new coaching staff, a great free agency where Jerry actually spends money, and a great draft
    all that mixed with Romo coming back is a playoff team

    drafting a QB in the 1st isnt really smart, unless we get the 1st pick with Luck then I would do that
    if we are picking that high im taking Patrick Peterson LSU
    heck Mark Ingram would make alot of sense too, paired with Felix, then you can trade Choice for something in return
    high 2nd rd pick you get Camiri
    still need a FS and DL help as well

    7 8 or 9 win team with Romo at this current stage, with Kitna we will be lucky to win 3 games

  • Hatetheiggles

    Kind of off topic, but is there any chance Jerry reads these blogs? (or has his loyal subjects review them and report back to him). Aside from football, I know he’s not an idiot. He’s got to realize the massive public outcry for him to hire a real football guy (he can keep the title). I’m just scared that in spite of these repeated failures that he will keep doing what he does and this spells doom for Cowboys nation. The power of negative reinforcement and not buying Cowboys gear and tickets is our only ammo I guess. Can’t sanity prevail if we bang him over the head with it?

  • ym

    If we draft Luck, an important question to consider is how Romo, or another vetran QB, will haze him. Or will Roy take the initiative?

  • Satch

    What about Christian Ponder? He could probably be had in the 2nd. I know he is not having a great year so far, but they are hurting at receiver. He has a very similar skill set as Romo, but is a great leader and a super smart kid.

    • AlanTdot

      We really looking at QB’s? Romo has Five years left at least.