Cowboys Nation: If we look at the developmental curves of NFL receivers, you don’t see a lot of rookies stepping into the league and lighting it up. I looked at it a couple of years ago and I think there were only two or three rookies in the last decade to top the 1000 yard mark in that first year. The good ones take off in year two or year three.
K.C. Joyner: Cornerbacks I have found, generally speaking they follow one of two curves. They either start off really well and taper off late, or they start off badly and they get better as the year progresses. There are other types, like Patrick Peterson. He did really badly at the beginning of the year, then he did okay in the middle and had the punt returns and the touchdowns. Then, he kind of stunk the rest of the year.
A lot of times if they start badly and improve as the season progresses, it’s like they say, “wow, the speed and the playbook, it’s too much,” and they they start to get it and their play improves, because their talent starts to show up.
The other type catch up to the game early, but the wear of a sixteen-game NFL season catches up to them. They’re used to playing 13-14 game college seasons, but at least two or three of those games are against complete creampuffs and you might be rotated out in the 3rd quarter because it’s a blowout. In essence, you’re playing a 10-11 game season and they get a 20 day break between the last game and their bowl game. I think the fatigue catches up to those guys and they have to learn how to adjust to it.
Let’s put it this way — Darrelle Revis had a 7.9 YPA in his rookie season. We know how great he is. In season one if you get great play from a rookie cornerback that’s great. If you get good play, be real happy and don’t judge where the cornerback is by his first year. You can have exceptions, but if a Darrelle Revis had struggles and didn’t dominate in his first season, it’s a high bar. I don’t think you can’t expect Morris Claiborne to dominate his first year.
CN: The cost aside, I think Cowboys fans are happy with getting Morris Claiborne the player. The team talked him up. Everybody has talked him up as one of the best players in the draft. That said, where should we realistically set expectations for 2012, in metric terms?
KC: If he had a yards-per-attempt total in the eight yard range. That’s not very good, but if you had a YPA around 8.0 or better and he put up four or five picks, I’d be happy with his season, as long as you knew he was progressing.
That’s the “satisfactory” line. If he does better than that, and he’s capable of doing better than that, then great. I don’t expect fans are going to keep it in perspective, though. They want to win right now. They want a Super Bowl now.
Look at the Giants last year. They drafted Amukamara, who was not as highly rated a prospect as Claiborne, but who for a while was a guy Cowboys fans were talking about. He got hurt early in the year, but he cam back, acclimated and did solid. Not great, but solid. He learned a lot.
I don’t think the Giants are unhappy with his first year.
Who was it for Dallas, Everson Walls, who had ten picks as a rookie? If Morris Claiborne doesn’t have an Everson Walls-like first year, people should not call him a failure.
CN: Well for one, his expectations were low. Walls wasn’t drafted, where Claiborne is a top-6 pick. Now, nobody did YPAs in those days, but what I remember about Everson Walls is that you could complete passes on him. Teams were not afraid to throw at him. In fact they targeted him a lot.
He would give up big plays, because he didn’t have elite speed. He was a poor-man’s ball-hawk; you would get some on him, but he would steal some from you and Dallas usually came out ahead in that bargain. If you could look at old tape and calculate YPA, I doubt Walls ever had a really high one, ever.
K.C.: But as you said, that’s the bargain. The picks gave Dallas what they wanted. There are not many corners you can count on to deliver picks. Claiborne is one of those guys.
I would judge him more on how the Cowboys do interception wise, and even that is a risky proposition. Luck is a factor in interceptions. But if he goes out there and gets his hands on a few passes, he’s helping the team. If he gets four picks and doesn’t get burned a lot, he’s doing well. Mind you, four picks is a low number. I think he could snag six or seven. But if he picks off four passes…
I would hold off judgement on him until year two, but when you trade up to the 6th overall pick, people want to see results immediately. I just don’t see him being a 6.0 YPA guy and a 6-7 pick guy in 2012.
Next: Run game metrics.