In this edition of Cowboys Nation’s chat with ESPN Insider K.C. Joyner, he discusses rookie cornerback developmental curves and what the fans could expect from top pick Morris Claiborne this fall.
Cowboys Nation: If we look at the developmental curves of NFL receivers, you don’t see a lot of rookies stepping into the league and lighting it up. I looked at it a couple of years ago and I think there were only two or three rookies in the last decade to top the 1000 yard mark in that first year. The good ones take off in year two or year three.
Do you see a similar learning curve with rookie cornerbacks? And if you do, what can or should Cowboys fans realistically expect from Morris Claiborne in 2012?
K.C. Joyner: Cornerbacks I have found, generally speaking they follow one of two curves. They either start off really well and taper off late, or they start off badly and they get better as the year progresses. There are other types, like Patrick Peterson. He did really badly at the beginning of the year, then he did okay in the middle and had the punt returns and the touchdowns. Then, he kind of stunk the rest of the year.
A lot of times if they start badly and improve as the season progresses, it’s like they say, “wow, the speed and the playbook, it’s too much,” and they they start to get it and their play improves, because their talent starts to show up.
The other type catch up to the game early, but the wear of a sixteen-game NFL season catches up to them. They’re used to playing 13-14 game college seasons, but at least two or three of those games are against complete creampuffs and you might be rotated out in the 3rd quarter because it’s a blowout. In essence, you’re playing a 10-11 game season and they get a 20 day break between the last game and their bowl game. I think the fatigue catches up to those guys and they have to learn how to adjust to it.
Let’s put it this way — Darrelle Revis had a 7.9 YPA in his rookie season. We know how great he is. In season one if you get great play from a rookie cornerback that’s great. If you get good play, be real happy and don’t judge where the cornerback is by his first year. You can have exceptions, but if a Darrelle Revis had struggles and didn’t dominate in his first season, it’s a high bar. I don’t think you can’t expect Morris Claiborne to dominate his first year.
CN: The cost aside, I think Cowboys fans are happy with getting Morris Claiborne the player. The team talked him up. Everybody has talked him up as one of the best players in the draft. That said, where should we realistically set expectations for 2012, in metric terms?
KC: If he had a yards-per-attempt total in the eight yard range. That’s not very good, but if you had a YPA around 8.0 or better and he put up four or five picks, I’d be happy with his season, as long as you knew he was progressing.
That’s the “satisfactory” line. If he does better than that, and he’s capable of doing better than that, then great. I don’t expect fans are going to keep it in perspective, though. They want to win right now. They want a Super Bowl now.